May 29, 2010

Power Grid Corp

Result Highlights

• Revenues were at INR 22 Bn for the quarter, down 4% YoY. Revenues increased to INR 71.27 Bn in FY10 from INR 66.75 Bn in FY09, aided by higher power transmission takings, which increased to IN 65.76 Bn from INR 52.83 Bn.

• Revenue from its consultancy operations rose 25% to INR 2691 Mn for FY10. This business contributed 4% to the revenues of the company. 

• Revenues from the telecom businesse rose 5%, for FY10. This segment contributed 2% to the revenues of the company.

• The EBITDA margins for the quarter saw a dip of 294 bps YoY, whereas the margins for the year saw a dip of 142 bps. This was mainly due to dip in revenues for the quarter and an increase in the company’s operating expenses, which increased by 4% for the quarter, YoY.

• A 40% increase in depreciation was offset by the 50% reduction in the interest expenses for the quarter, YoY.

• Depreciation increased due to additional capex undertaken by the company. Power Grid increased its capital expenditure to INR 105 Bn in the FY10 from INR 81.6 Bn in the previous financial year. • The company’s net profit for the quarter was at INR 5,465 Mn down 11% YoY. PAT for FY10 grew by 21 % to INR 20,409 Mn.
Other Updates
The company has capex plans of INR 135 Bn for FY11, mainly for expanding and strengthening its transmission networks this year. Funds for this would be raised through a follow on public offering, which according to the management will happen in Q2FY11. Besides this internal resources and commercial borrowings will also be used to raise funds.

Outlook and Valuations
At a CMP of INR 103 , the stock is currently trading at 18x its FY11 consensus earnings estimate and at 2.7x its book value per share. Considering the equity dilution by the comp any for the investment for XII plan and rich valuation with stable earnings, we recommend “Hold” rating to the stock.

Standard Chartered PLC

Background
Standard Chartered PLC (SCP) is coming up with Indian Depository Receipts (IDRs) of 240 Mn. 10 IDRs represent 1 equity share of the company (with a face value of USD 0.5 per equity share). SCP is headquartered in the UK where it is regulated by the FSA (The Financial Services Authority of the UK). SCP’s equity and preference shares are listed and traded on the London Stock Exchange & Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It has market capitalization of USD 48.08 Bn. The bank operates through a number of subsidiaries including SCB (Standard Chartered Bank, UK), one of the leading international banking and financial services company. 

Investment Rationale


SCP is well positioned to benefit from recovery in emerging markets SCP’s Korea operations are about to see a turnaround with the management expecting an improvement in he profitability on the back of an increased market share and rising interest rates

SCP’s has well diversified revenue streams spread across emerging markets.

SCP’s wholesale banking business achieved a superior financial performance across client segments, products and markets, continuing
the growth trajectory

SCP’s consumer banking business has shown a decline in its operating income in CY09. However, bank is likely to focus on the consumer deposits to increase its performance in the consumer banking division


Concerns

The issue of regulatory changes for the banking sector remains significant  Changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and other market risks could adversely affect the groups financial condition and results of operations  Lower institutional participation could lead to a discount in trading multiples Institutional participation in the bank’s IDR is likely to be restricted IDR Holders will bear the risk of factors affecting the price of the SCP’s shares in overseas market.


Valuation & Recommendations

The Indian Investor is getting an opportunity through Standard Chartered Bank’s IDR to invest in global company. The issue has certain constraints in terms of lower institutional participation & higher incidence of tax. In terms of valuation, the stock is currently trading at 1.7x book value. Its peer group valuation is in the range of 1.5x-3.4x. Further, for retail investors it is offered in the Price band of INR 95-109 which implies a P/B of 1.5-1.7x. However, considering the wide presence in the emerging economies which will benefit bank’s future performance, we recommend investors to SUBSCRIBE to the issue.


May 24, 2010

Weekly Journal


Weekly Journal
Economy (Global)
US wholesale prices unexpectedly dropped in April by 0.1% following a
0.7% increase in March. Excluding food and fuel, the core prices climbed 0.2%, compared to 0.1% gains in March. Consumer prices fell to 0.1%  in April, signaling the world’s largest economy is recovering without causing prices to flare. Excluding food and fuel, the core rate rose 0.9% in April YoY after a 1.1% gain last month. Gasoline prices fell 2.4% in April. Food prices, which account for15% of the CPI, rose 0.2%. Manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May as the general economic index fell to 19.1 in May from 31.9 in April. Japan’s  onsumer sentiment rose as the benefits of an export-fueled recovery continued to spread to households. The confidence index climbed to 42 in April from 40.9 in March. Japanese machinery orders advanced 5.4% in March from February.

U.K’s consumer prices rose 3.7% (forecast a 3.5%) from a year earlier,
compared with a 3.4% increase in March. With inflation above the overnment’s upper limit of 3%, the Bank of England is expected to take tightening monetary measures to contain peaking inflation. Exceeding forecast the housing starts rose by 41% in April to 672,000 YoY. Building permits, which are considered a leading indicator for homebuilding, fell 12% in April to a 606,000 annual rate. England posted its largest April budget deficit to 10 billion-pound (USD 14.4 bn) shortfall compared with 8.8 bn pounds a year earlier. Spain approved the public wage cuts and reduced its economic growth forecast for next year as the government tries to tame the euro region’s third-largest budget deficit. Gross domestic product will grow 1.3% in2011, less than a previous projection for 1.8%, and the government said the deficit will narrow to 6% of GDP next year from 11.2% in 2009. Wages for government workers will drop 5% in June.


Commodities and Currencies
Gold prices fell to USD 1,176.10 an ounce on the Comex in New York, capping the biggest weekly loss. The metal declined 4.2% this week. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, remained unchanged at 1,220.15 metric tons. Crude oil fell as
European governments struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. Crude oil for July delivery dropped to USD 70 a barrel on the NYMEX. rices slipped 7.1% this week.


Indian Economy
Imports surged by 43.3% to USD 27.3 billion in April, indicating that the domestic industry was consuming more and its output could grow. Factory production has also been rising steadily, with a 13.5% growth for March and 10.4% for FY10. Exports were up 36.2% to USD 16.9 bn in April, but this was more due to low base effect than a healthy demand revival, year-ago exports numbers were at USD 12.4 bn. Exports of engineering  goods and textiles went up by 16% and 30%, respectively. Petroleum products exports grew by 80% in April YoY. India's food price index rose 16.49% in the year to May 8, while the fuel price index rose 12.33%. Food prices inched up compared with the previous week's annual rise of 16.44%, while fuel prices held steady. The primary articles index was up 16.19% in early May, compared with the previous week's annual reading of 16.76%. India's government borrowing could be lower by INR 350 Bn (USD 7.6 Bn) in the FY11 from earlier estimates of INR 4.57 Tn (USD 99.3 Bn) on higher third-generation spectrum sale inflows. Because of which the fiscal deficit may slide to 5%, from the projected figure of 5.5%. Economic growth forecast for the FY10 is likely to be revised upwards to7.5% from 7.2% due to better industrial output growth in the March quarter and agricultural growth. The textile exports to the US are finally back on track, recording growth in February and March. Textile and apparel exports to the US rose 8.3% y-o-y in March to USD 487.8 Mn. Exports increased 7.7% y-o-y to USD 443.5 Mn in February. Apparel exports to the US, however, posted a modest 2.8% growth in March to USD 315.1 Mn. Demand has started to pick up in the US.The bookings are quite reasonable and (trade) enquiries have also been quite good.

Indian Debt Markets

The yield on India's 7.80% 10-year benchmark bond ended at 7.38% from 7.50% a start of the week. The government sold three bonds worth INR 130  Bn (USD 2.8 billion) on Friday.

Indian Currency Movement
The Indian rupee posted its biggest weekly decline in nearly 14 years as domestic shares extended losses while concerns remained over the euro zone's growth prospects. The partially convertible rupee closed at 46.95/96 per USD. Over the week the rupee dropped 3.8%. The rupee has lost 5.5% so far in May due to the outflows, and is down 0.9% in the year to date.


Global and Domestic Stock Markets
Global
Major U.S. markets closed lower for the week. The S&P 500 closed down and the Nasdaq edged lower for the week. The Dow also fell by 4.0%. European and Asian markets also tumbled on fears of further deepening in Euro debt crisis as Germany banned short selling. Crude traded near the $69-70 level. Gold touched high of $1,242 but fell to $1177 level. On the economic front, new housing starts in April were up about 7 percent from March, coming in at 672,000. On the news front, Germany's parliament approved a law allowing it to contribute to the 750 bn euro debt rescue package to protect the euro zone. US economic data to watch out in the next week: GDP Price Index, Initial Jobless claims, Personal Spending, Personal Income.

Domestic Performance of Sectoral Indices
The domestic markets also saw sharp corrections during the week over the Euro debt crisis. Nifty and Sensex closed 3.2% down with heavy selloff from FIIs. Among the BSE sectoral indices, FMCG (-10.32%), Realty (-8.82%), Metal (-6.49%) were the worst hit, while only CG (+1.2%) was the major gainer. ABB was the major gainer as it made open offer at 900, while Aban lost further during the week after the Venezuela accident. FIIs and MFs remained net sellers in this week also. Data to watchout in next week: Primary Articles WPI, Fuel Power Light WPI.

Outlook
The domestic market lost ground in line with the international markets. Concerns over the handling of euro zone issue led to weakness in commodities and equity markets. On the domestic macro front, however things were better. The government has collected more than anticipated in 3G spectrum. Govt pronouncements on infrastructure funding are also positive. Change in gas prices was a positive move and this has led to expectation that Government may also act on the oil price deregulation. Larsen came out with strong numbers and gave a fairly solid guidance for next year as well. ITC results were better than expectation. The Piramal Healthcare deal with Abott is bound to generate interest in the Pharma space while the BOR-ICICI deal will keep market participants interested in mid cap banking space. German parliament approved Euro Aid package and that may help bring back some stability in the euro in short term which in turn may bring some pull back in commodities which have seen a sharp unwinding.

Conclusion
Nifty closed below the 200 DMA but did not close below the 200 DEMA levels. Any pull back above 200 DMA will result in a sharp pull back rally. Some support has come into international markets also around the 200 DMA levels. FTSE has support around 5000 levels while Dow finds support around the 10000 levels. Sectors like metals, realty were in oversold territory and saw some bounce from important support levels There could be some more pull back in metals, auto and realty stocks. Sterlite, Hind Zinc, Tata Steel, Tata Motors could see some pull back. In the mid cap space, stocks like Petronet, SREI Infra were some of the stocks which look set for more gains. In the momentum pack, IFCI did see swift recovery from lows suggesting buying interest in the same. Hurdles for Nifty will be around 4970-5020-5050-5150 and short term supports is seen at 4890-4840 levels. Nifty is likely to trade in the following range in the coming week:

Short term Support: 4890/4840

Short term Resistance: 4970/5020/5050

Sector & Company Highlights
Infrastructure & Capital Goods
The government proposes to raise FDI in defence production to 74% (currently 26%), to ensure technology transfer and funds to effectively
replace imports, estimated at over $8 bn.

McNally Bharat Engineering Company Ltd has received the orders worth INR 271.8Mn.


Thermax has signed a technology transfer agreement with German firm Lambion Energy Solutions in the area of energy generation from waste. The technology transfer will enable Thermax with high efficiency combustion systems for using biomass, high in moisture content, for
energy generation. This technology will be integrated with boilers and heaters made by Thermax with a capacity range of 4-30 MW.  hermax will have an exclusive license to market heating systems in India and south Asian countries, South East Asia, Middle East and Africa.

IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd has emerged as the lowest bidder (50:50 JV with Ramky Infrastructure Ltd) from NHAI for Four Laning of Jorabat - Shillong (Barapani) in the State of Assam & Meghalaya on Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (DBFOT) pattern. The Project is on Annuity basis with a concession period of 20 years including a construction period of 3 years. The estimated cost of the Project is INR 5.36bn. The Company shall receive a semi-annual Annuity of INR 725.1Mn.

GMR Infrastructure is hoping to tie up funds (at 10.5 – 11%) for its newest highway project by the end of next month. The INR 17bn, 99 km national highway runs between Hungund and Hospet in Karnataka. GMR bagged the project in February along with New Delhi-based Oriental Structural Engineers (51:49). The project is on build-operate-transfer (BOT)-toll project with a concession period of 20 years. The roject would have a debt-equity ratio of 70:30.

IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd has received Letter of Acceptance from NHAI for a project based on Design, Build, Finance and Operation of Six Lanning of Tumkur - Chitradurga (114 km) in the state of Karnataka.

Shriram EPC won two orders worth INR 1250Mn from Prakash Industries Ltd and a Bangalore-based utility.

Elecon Engineering has been awarded order worth INR 327.7Mn from Manikgarh Cement Unit-II for design, engineering, manufacturing,
testing, supplying, erectioning and commissioning of Material Handling Equipments and other Equipments

Cement
Cement prices have already begun to fall across region in the country and are further expected to soften by over 10-15% during 1HFY11 owing to dual effects of over-supply and lower demand (on the back of set of early monsoon).

Shree Cement is considering to foray into solar power sector and set up plants to generate 50Mw in Rajasthan at a cost of INR 7.5bn. Company will use its present cash surplus ofINR 20bn to fund the proposed venture.

Reality
Godrej Properties Ltd will launch new projects across 4 cities in FY11, totaling 15 million square feet, taking its presence to 10 cities cross the country. The new projects would be launched in Mangalore, Chennai, Kochi and Hyderabad. These would be residential properties,  including affordable and mid-income.



nd
Oil & Gas
Indian Government has increased the dministered Price Mechanism (APM) price of gas from the present INR 3,200 per thousand cubic metres (TCM) to Rs 7,500 per TCM. The new price would be  pplicable to small consumers and Supreme Court-mandated industrial units in and around Agra and Ferozabad as well as for compressed natural gas (CNG) that is pumped into local transport bus.


Cairn India is planning to ramp up production at its Mangala oil fields (to 125,000 bopd) after laying a pipeline which will enable it to sellmore oil to refiners.
Power & Power Equipment

Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd (PGCIL) plans to float tenders valued at around Rs 640 Bn in 2010-11 for nine high-capacity corridors that will transmit power from new projects in Orissa, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Tata Power Co. Ltd on Wednesday moved the Bombay high court against the Maharashtra government’s decision asking it to continue supplying power to rival Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, or R-Infra, at regulated rates.

Power tariff would go up by about Re 1 per unit (kwh) owing to the government's decision to hike gas prices last evening. The government raised natural gas prices by more than double -- to USD 4.20 per mmBtu.

Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam expects annual net profit to touch Rs 9000 mn ($194 million) after the fiscal year 2012/13 on start of new projects, its chairman said on Thursday. The company sees annual net profit at Rs 7500 mn till the year ending in March 2013.

ABB on Monday offered 965 million dollars (785 million euros) to increase its stake in its Indian subsidiary. If the offer of 900 rupees per
share is accepted by shareholders of the Indian subsidiary, ABB Limited, the engineering group's stake in its subsidiary would increase from
52 per cent to 75 percent

Pharma

Abbott will make an upfront payment of USD 2.12 bn & annual payments of USD 400 mn for next 4 years for acquiring Piramal’s domestic business. Abbott is expecting transaction to get over by H2 of 2010


Dr Reddy's Laboratories announced the launch of Tacrolimus capsules, used to prevent rejection of kidney and liver transplants, in the US
market

Elder Pharmaceuticals, which has just developed its first innovative nutraceutical drug whose chemical name is ‘coenzyme Q10’ will help
to build immunity against cardiovascular diseases, neurogenerative diseases like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s, migraine, hypertension and
diabetes.

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd said its European unit was recalling select batches of three products to add safety warnings under the
regulations there

Stride Arcolab has received a tentative approval from US health regulator Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for generic drug abacavir
sulfate tablets, which are used against HIV infection

Auto

Hindustan Motors plans to double manufacturing capacity at Thiruvallur plant near here by 2012 end. The Thiruvallur plant has a capacity
of 12,000 units and two years down the line, capacity would be doubled to reach 24,000.

nd
Maruti Suzuki India is planning to launch a new version of its small car Alto, the highest selling model in India, with a bigger engine. The company has also appointed Japanese firm Nippo as its consultant for developing a test track at Rohtak, in Haryana, where its research and
development centre is being set up at an investment of INR 15 bn.

Tata Motors is in talks with Metalsa SA de CV to manufacture its cars in Mexico. If the talks are successful, the Mexican firm will make the Indica Vista hatcback, Indigo Manza sedan and the ultra-cheap Nano under a contract manufacturing arrangement.

Metal/Mining
Jindal Steel and Power has acquired Shadeed Iron & Steel for USD 464 mn. The Oman-based steel company has 1.5 MT Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) facility located in Sohar, Oman. The acquisition is part of the domestic firm's plans to expand its operations overseas.

Visa Steel expects INR 1.8-2 bn revenue and expects to maintain operating margins at 17% in FY11. The company will invest INR 4 bn for capital expenditure for which funds have already been raised at a debt/equity ratio of 65:25.

Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is in advanced stages of discussion to set up a steel making facility in Jharkhand in a joint venture with Posco. The two firms are also planning to set up a specialised steel mill in Maharashtra.

Essar Steel will commission the first phase of its INR 130 bn expansion project by the end of next month. The first phase of expansion (1.8 MTPA) will be commissioned by the end of next month.

NMDC will seek a 90-100% jump in prices for supply of iron ore to Japanese and South Korean steel mills for the current quarter over the previous contractual rates. The company had last year entered into pact to supply iron ore lumps to these mills at around USD 71/tonne and iron fines at USD 61/tonne.

Media

Sahara One is set for a big change. From packaging to renewed initiatives in programming, the channel promises its viewers a fresh and
new exposure keeping in mind the changing tastes. This year they plan to launch 6 to 7 shows.

Reliance MediaWorks, part of the Reliance ADA group, is training a small army (2,700) of artists to make 2D pictures into 3D in the next year, to meet the rise in demand for 3D films following the huge success of James Cameron's "Avatar" and other films.

Reliance MediaWorks, with two other group firms, has acquired an additional 1.89 lakh shares and raised their stake in multiplex chain
Fame India Ltd to 14.51%, as it battles rival Inox in a takeover bid

Source: Bloomberg


Primal Healthcare Q4 Result Update

Net sales in Q4FY10 have grown by 11 % to INR 9418 mn vs INR 8509 mn.This subdued growth was witnessed as the CRAMS business played a laggard. This was below Unicon’s estimate of INR 10084 mnIncrease in net sales have been on account of a 37% growthi domestic formulation business vs the industry growth of 18%.This was due to a better penetration in tier II and tier III cities coupled with new product launces.CRAMS business is expected to pick up in the coming yearPiramal has renew its Pfizer contract for a longer tenure andincreased number of products and acquired some new contracts at its Indian facilities.Contribution from Minrad is expected to increase on back ofincreased volumes ofSevoflurane - targeting veterinary segment and has started filing for products set to be launchedin Europe during FY11. Desflurane is expected to belaunched in the next 12-18 months in the US which has a market size of USD 250mn . Sevoflurane’s US market share has increased to 18% from 5% earlier. EBIDTA stood at INR 2212 mn in Q4FY10 vs INR 1953 mn , a growth of 13% above Unicon’s estimate of INR 2001 mn Margins were at 23.5%, an increase by 50 bps on account of reduction in raw material cost and better contribution from its domestic formulation business PAT grew by 34% to INR 1543 mn in Q4FY10 vs INR 1149 mn inline with Unicon’s estimate of INR 1498mn and margins at 17% an increase 290 bps on back of reduced interest charges

Valuation and outlook
At CMP of INR 502 the stock trades at 21.7x annualized earnings of INR 23.1.Going forward we expect Piramal to improve its earnings on account of better performance of the domestic formulation business through newer product launches, better tier II and tier III penetration and margins to improve through better cost containment measures. Better contribution
from Minrad and CRAMS business is expected to improve its revenue stream in the next couple of quarters. We maintain Hold on the stock with a target price of INR 451




May 18, 2010

Container Corporation of India Ltd Q4 Result Update


Result highlights

• Container Corporation of India (CONCOR) Q4FY10 revenueincreased by 13% to INR 9,505Mn in line with Unicon’s estimates compared to INR 8,412Mn during same quarter last year.

• Q4FY10 EBITDA decreased by ~2% on YoY basis to INR 2,201Mn in line with our expectation mainly on account of the decline in the realizations. EXIM realization declined sharply by 4.7% YoY, whereas the Domestic realization declined 5% YoY.

• PAT for period under review decreased by 8% from INR 1,877Mn to INR 1,727Mn mainly due to higher rail freight expenses and lower other income. The other income for Q4FY10
decreased by ~20% to INR 383Mn against INR 482Mn during Q4FY09 due to drop in interest earnings.

• FY10 revenue increased by 8.3% at INR 37,023Mn against INR 34,172Mn for FY09. The operating margins (EBITDA) grew by ~5% to INR 9,763Mn in FY10 as compared to INR 9,311Mn in
FY09.

• Consolidated Net Profit marginally decreased by 1.6% to INR 7,786Mn in FY10 against INR 7,912Mn during FY09.

• For FY10 CONCOR incurred capex of INR 4Bn for acquisition of rakes and modernization of terminals. CONCOR added 14 rakes during the year taking its wagon fleet to 10,500 against 8,117
during FY09.

• Management guides for volumes growth of ~10% in FY11-12E(5-8% in EXIM and 12-15% in domestic).

Outlook
In our view, CONCOR is likely to face stiff competition from the private operators over the coming years.At the CMP of INR 1300, the stock trades at a PE of ~21.7 its TTM EPS of INR 60. CONCOR would continue be the market leader in the mid-term due to its vast and strategic network of rail.
 We recommend a HOLD on the stock for medium to long term.

Koutons Retail India Ltd. - Q4FY10 Result Update



Company Background
Koutons Retail India Ltd (KRIL) is the largest retailer of readymade and fashion wear apparels for men, women and children in India with its own manufacturing facilities in North India. The company has a pan India presence through ~1,400 Exclusive Brand Outlets (EBO's) in five different formats. KRIL currently has 1,360 stores in 500 cities of India, covering a total retail space of 13,23,020 sq.ft.
Result highlights KRIL Q4FY10 revenue increased marginally by 1.9% to INR 3,860Mn on YoY basis. For full year FY10, revenue increased by 13.5% to INR 12,054Mn against INR 10,623Mn in FY09. During this period, management focused on introduction of family stores concept, which had benefited company in terms of increased revenue and customer base.

Q4FY10 EBITDA decreased by ~22% on YoY basis to INR 736Mn, while the operating profit (EBITDA) for full year FY10 grew by ~4% to INR 2,328Mn on YoY basis against INR 2,238Mn during FY09.

PAT for the quarter under review decreased by ~12% to INR 314Mn on YoY basis, whereas the consolidated Net Profit for FY10 increased by 3.5% to INR 823Mn against INR 796Mn during FY09.

Going forward, KRIL is planning to convert its existing stores to Koutons family stores (KFS) having an average store size of >3,000 sq.ft, by acquiring more space at the existing outlets. This will enable KRIL to increase per sq. ft revenue and offer
more variety to customer within a same store leading to volume growth.


Q4 SBI Result Update by unicon

State Bank of India (SBI) reported at sharp decline in profits by
31.9% to INR 187.6 Bn (below our estimates of INR 255.9 Bn) from INR 274.2 Bn, largely due to higher provisioning for NPAs, operating & credit costs. SBI reported strong net interest income (NII) by 39% YoY to INR 67.12 Bn (inline with our estimates of INR 69.7 Bn). To mop up the excess liquidity, SBI has strategically reduced its deposits growth to 16% YoY as compared to advance growth of 17% YoY. The credit deposit ratio improved by 693 bps in FY10 to 73.56% from 66.63% YoY.
With lower cost of deposits & better utilization of surplus liquidity SBI’s Net Interest Margins (NIMs) improved by 54 bps to 2.93% YoY from 2.39% YoY & 2.82% QoQ. The cost of deposits declined by 12 bps QoQ & 50 bps YoY to 5.8%. In Q4FY10 CASA deposits grew by 27% YoY to INR 3465 Bn, due to high share of low cost of deposits & 50% YoY decline in bulk deposits.
SBI has registered a low operating efficiency as cost-income ratio rose to 52.59% & operating costs jumped sharply by 40.9% YoY &19.2% QoQ to INR 60.4 bn led by higher provisions for wage arrears, new employee additions and branch expansion (1049 inFY10).

An asset quality pressure continues as the gross NPAs increased
to 3.05% from 2.86% YoY, however, the net NPAs have fallen
marginally to 1.72% from 1.79% YoY in Q4FY10.Slippages continued to remain high at INR 25 bn. (1.6% of gross loans) in Q4FY10 & INR 118.4 bn (1.8%) in FY10. NPA coverage ratio in Q4FY10 stood at 59.2% (Including Technical write-off) from 56.2% in Q3FY10 and the bank has received RBI approval to raise it to 70% mark by March-2011 as against September, 2010 earlier. The restructured advances stood at 4.2% (INR 268 Bn) of total advances with incrementa structuring of INR 30 bn in Q4FY10.

Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) for the bank remains healthy at 13.4% and Tier I CAR at 9.5%. The bank management has guided to raiseINR 2-3 Bn via retail bond issuance which will boost Tier II capital of the bank.

Outlook
Due to sluggish credit off-take, excess liquidity & higher slippages SBI posted a subdued performance in FY10. However, going ahead the credit growth is expected to improve22% in FY11, which will help SBI
to improve its earnings. On back of ample liquidity on its balance sheet & strong NII, NIMs are likely to improve by 10-15 bps in FY11. However, asset quality concerns to remain in medium term. At the CMP of INR 2250 stock trades at 2.16x its P/BV, we have ACCUMULATE rating on the stock for target price of INR 2475